Predictions: The Obama Presidency + 2012

Obama Presidency Predictions

Obama's staff picks so far have been astonishingly Clinton-era; nary a new face. Clinton-ite, and pusher behind the NAFTA Free Trade Agreement that most people point to when they talk about Clinton's "centrist" policies, Rahm Emanuel, as previously mentioned, will be chief-of-staff. John Podesta, another rabid liberal partisan will be head of Obama's so called "Transition Project," which appears to be a way that Obama can lead before he's actually sworn in.

For the Cabinet, the odiously liberal HuffPo has a Dem-insider post about likely Cabinet picks.

Attorney General: The HuffPo says that former Bush AG Alberto Gonzales brought "controversy" to this post, but seems to have forgotten Janet Reno's bloody attack on religious nuts in the early nineties...ever heard of Waco? Arizona governor Janet Napolitano is reportedly in line for this post. Young, Black governor Deval Patrick is also being considered for this post in young, Black president Obama's cabinet.

Treasury Secretary: Tim Geithner, Chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, and a protege of Clinton-era TS Robert Rubin, is being considered, as well as another Clinton-era TS, the former president of Harvard, Larry Summers. Summers was fired from his (tenured) post at Harvard when he suggested that there may be inherent differences between men and women in the fields of science and engineering....Amazing. Both of these men are Clinton "centrists."

Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates, the current secretary, is probably going to stay for a while. After that, Colin Powell's name is being bandied around, but he's already served in the post under two presidents and has shown no interest. Richard Danzig, former Navy Secretary, is also being considered.

Secretary of State: The laughable John Kerry is reportedly angling hard for this job; other candidates are, surprisingly, a Republican; RINO Chuck Hagel of Nebraska; and three boring Obama policy advisors. Although, if Robert Gates is kept on as Defense Secretary, another high-ranking Republican cabinet secretary is unlikely. (Although, as Glenn Beck noted on Monday, Gates is not a registered Republican.)

Other posts:

Sec. of Agriculture: Former governor Tom Vilsack, of (you guessed it) Iowa--although he was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton (where is she in these discussions, by the way? Obama seems to have totally ignored her.) We Wisconsinites are much better at agriculture than the poor sappy Iowans, so may I humbly suggest to President Obama that you rid us of...err, I mean, appoint WI governor Jim Doyle to the job? Word around here is that Doyle would accept a post if it were offered to him, but it might lose the Wisconsin governorship to the Democrats.

Energy: Many people, from PA governor Ed Rendell to CA governor and Republican Ah-nold Schwarzanegger are being considered.

Education: Joel Klein or Caroline Kennedy.

Policy-wise, Obama seems to be following in Clinton's footsteps, with many old Clinton names and policies. He seems committed to ending the war in Iraq, and possibly Afghanistan as well, although he may renege on that promise if as president, he is made aware of the blow to US image it would be and the other reasons against pulling out. He would have to weigh whether upsetting the anti-war wing of the party with a phased withdrawal (like Bush's plan) would lose him more votes than the possible awful consequences to our image abroad, not to mention middle-eastern policy and politics and the possibility that emboldened terrorists would

Predictions for the 2012 Election

This all depends on Obama's presidency. Will he be Carter or Clinton? He is certainly angling to be the next Clinton, but if the economy heads even farther south, that would reflect badly on him as it did on Carter, and if he withdraws from Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a serious possibility of war in the Middle-East, possibly between Pakistan and Afghanistan, or Iran and Iraq (2.0). If Obama is a weak brand for re-election in 2012, the challenger is all the more important. If Obama seems strong or moderate, as Clinton was in '96, the LAST thing we want to do is nominate another Dole (like McCain would be then.)

Mitt Romney (who would be the first Mormon president) is already gearing up for 2012, and barring anything unexpected, he is the frontrunner: his strong economic experience would be a huge asset. Conservatives are likely to support Louisiana Republican success story Bobby Jindal, who would be the first Indian-American president, who has governed post-Katrina LA with grace and aplomb, or Sarah Palin. We will see in 2012 if Palin's image has been permanently dented by the McCain camp's mishandling of her: the whole "bulldog in lipstick" thing, I've heard, is very different than the image she cultivated as Alaska governor, and probably boiled up by the McCain people. If she put that behind her, she would be strong in 2012. If not, she would be a goof on the Dan Quayle scale. Mike Huckabee is not to be ruled out. All of these candidates seem good for 2012, just as none of them seemed particularly good for 2008. Ideally, I would pick Jindal-Huckabee, but they are so publically Christian that it might be hard. Romney-Palin could be worse, as could Romney-Huckabee or Huckabee-Romney. Romney-Jindal would be a strong ticket, but anything with Palin on the top might not fly.

Enjoy four years of the Obamaniac!

Super Bowl & Super Tuesday

Within one week, two SUPER events are going on, although which of them is SUPER-er is debatable. On the one hand you have the presidential primaries that will determine the two final candidates vying for leadership of the free world, and on the other the greatest football spectacle in history. So I'd say it's a tie.

Frankly, the Super Bowl this year was an amazing game, and I got exactly the result I wanted. I hate to brag, but I thought the Giants would win since the handily beat the Pack two weeks ago. As one sports analyst pointed out while hawking a Giants win: no team has played better football in the post season. He was right, and so was I. What a game! Unlike most years, the ads were only a diversion. The game was better, and that doesn't always happen. Tom Petty was good but not great during the halftime show and Jordin Sparks was much better than expected for the national anthem and made great use of her vocal chords without too many airs. Unlike certain other, Canadian singers that have done it in years past. coughcoughcelinedioncoughcough. It probably helps that her father actually was a pro football player.

On to Super Tuesday. It's looking very bad for Romney, better than expected for Huckabee, and predictably a walkover for McCain. I guess I'm going to have to reconcile myself to McCain as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. I don't like it, but my likes and dislikes sadly do not determine everything, or indeed much at all. Huckabee had a great day, winning West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, and some other states, at the expense of Romney. McCain won some of the more liberal states and generally stuffed it up Romney's face. McCain, whose campaign was virtually dead this summer, has been revitalized, and it's shocking to me how large a part the liberal media played in it. After his unexpected win in New Hampshire, they hawked him 24/7 and it paid off. Those dirty crooks. Oh, well, no one listens to me anyway. Romney is pretty much dead unless he takes the big prize, California, which is still in voting. I saw polls yesterday that had him with a lead over McCain, but that seems improbable considering how liberal the state is, and that many former supporters of Giuliani, the most liberal candidate, went over to McCain.

On to bigger and better things. Anyone could have seen in my post about Predestination that I was wavering, and I finally slipped over the brink. BUT I DON'T HAVE TO LIKE IT! No, I like it. I now realize it's the clear scriptural position. Frankly, what I don't want to do is talk about it. I hate arguing about things when I've just switched from one side to the other. I have to give my predestination shell some time to harden.

Iowa Caucus Results

Although it appears that no one reads this blog anymore, I decided to post the results anyway.

Republicans:

With 25 percent of the results in, Huckabee was the clear winner, with 35 percent. Romney was second, with only 24 percent. Thompson placed third with 14 percent, and McCain ran fourth with 12 percent.

My Take:

This is almost unbelievable good for Huckabee. He went from the "top of the second tier" as I characterized it earlier in the campaign to running first in many polls. And now, he's won Iowa. I'm wondering if he can keep it up through New Hampshire and the other early primaries.

Obviously not so good for Romney. To lose by that much to Huckabee is certainly rather embarrassing, but he can recover and I can see him winning New Hampshire.

Third is good for Thompson, it will give him much-needed momentum.

Fourth for McCain is disappointing. Many analysts thought he would take third. Fred Thompson obviously still has the fire to beat him.

The Democrats:

Barack Obama took the Iowa Democratic Caucus, with 34 percent. Clinton and Edwards are in a dead heat for second, each with 32 percent.

My take:

This is good, but not unexpected news for Obama. He's been polling ahead of Hillary in Iowa for a while now, and I think he can keep up the momentum.

Bad, but also not unexpected for Hillary. She still has a lot of campaigning oomph and better connections than Obama.

This is very good for Edwards. If he places second, which Bob Novak predicted, it would be phenomenal and probably vice-president material. He's too annoying to beat Obama, however.

My predictions: McCain, who finished disapointingly in Iowa, has been campaigning hard in New Hampshire and is currently ahead according to the latest RCP poll. He swept the New Hampshire newspaper endorsements, and has rocketed up in the polls because of it. Romney is biting at his heels, with Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul in a tight race for third. Thompson is barely above the margin of error. He's hoping his Iowa momentum will last him until South Carolina.

The Democrats are more widely spaced in New Hampshire, with Clinton ahead by a decent margin, and Edwards ten points behind Obama. If Obama can manage a win in NH, he will be unstoppable, but if Clinton wins, they will be neck-and-neck going into Michigan. I haven't seen numbers, but I tend to think Michigan would favor Obama. Edwards, although he finished well in Iowa, is not really a contender in my view. He's probably going for VP again.

My Predictions for the Nominee: Democrats: Easy. Obama. Barring anything unforeseen, his defeat of Clinton in Iowa was a major upset, even if most people saw it coming. It's possible he'd go for Hillary for his VP, but I think Edwards is a more likely choice. In the event that Hillary gets the nomination, I think she might get Richardson. He has the credentials of Biden without being old. Plus he's Hispanic.

Republicans: This is harder to call. I can see it going to Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and even Thompson at a stretch. My dream P/VP match would be Thompson-Huckabee, but Huckabee-Thompson might actually happen. Romney-McCain would be a nightmare.

Well, there you are! Hope you enjoyed it.

The Candidates: Where are they now?

It's been several weeks since my last post, and several months since I really went into detail about the Presidential candidates. I deeply apologize.

The election, of course, is closer than ever, and in that time period, the campaigns have really got off the ground.

So, let's begin.

THE DEMOCRATS
They are heavily favored, but one scandal could drag them all down.

HILLARY CLINTON
She continues to lead in the polls, with a fairly substantial margin over B. Obama. So far, her campaigning has been relatively flawless, as one would suspect. Especially since she's been planning it for decades.

BARACK OBAMA
He is still a force to be reckoned with, and I can easily see the nomination going to him. He's "inexperienced," but compared to Hillary's record, that's definitely a good thing. Especially if he's running as an outsider; someone who says he wants to turn Washington upside down.

JOHN EDWARDS
He's a long-shot, but he's played all his cards in Iowa, and that could get him almost onto the same level as Obama and Clinton. Even more than Obama, he's running a populist campaign. He was on the cover of Esquire, for crying out loud. Honestly, though, for an unprincipled former trial lawyer, Edwards has made it far. Too far. I almost hope he'll get the VP ticket again--he lost his own state in 2004.

THE OTHER DEMOCRATS
No one really stands out, but I think that's because the Democratic Party has two dream candidates in Obama and Clinton, and a third one for the racist bigots "yellow dog" 'crats who won't vote for the other two--Edwards. Biden continues his straight talk, but it's getting him nowhere fast. The others: zilch.

THE REPUBLICANS
Even though they are a long-shot for the presidency, we have a reasonably strong field, with something for just about everybody.

RUDY GIULIANI
...Is fighting for his life in the polls. Fred Thompson, who has only JUST started campaigning, is already close to him in the polls, and that combined with his liberal views makes me very doubtful of his chances.

JOHN MCCAIN
Is dead. Not literally. He'll probably still get about six or seven votes; all old Texan men with big belt buckles.

MITT ROMNEY
It's hard to categorize Romney. He flip-flopped on Abortion, and he has a liberal spending record, but who knows? He's running third in the polls and leading a flawless campaign. Still though, he seems lackluster.

FRED THOMPSON
He finally announced his candidacy, and none too soon. He'll have to play a strong game, especially as he is seen as an establishmentarian candidate. Not a good thing for a candidate campaigning as an outsider. He was a Washington lobbyist too, which is a yellow card. I think he has wide appeal, and he's probably my pick for nominee.

MIKE HUCKABEE
Has made a serious play, and is now in the top of the second tier, or the bottom of the first tier, and upwardly mobile. A bass-guitar-playing former Baptist minister from Arkansas? Every liberal's worst fear. He's even slime and mildly photogenic. Go Mike!

THE OTHER REPUBLICANS
Are preeety sad. We'll see though.

Sorry for all the time I've been gone. School's started and put me in a bit of a time-bind. I'm going to try to be more regular in the future. Believe me, I have lots of ideas.

The Party of Greed, Candidate #2

Mitt Romney

Wait a sec...How did a Mormon become the Republican governor of Massachusetts, a state which is so blue you can see it from space? Well, however he did it, he did do it, so we see that he can rise to a high post despite his religious differences and apparent waffle on social issues, which actually might have contributed to his win.

He might be vice president-material if he has to play second fiddle to Giuliani, as his photogenic appearance, (his smile is blinding) would weigh heavily in his favor. If only, if only. Sadly, Romney is nothing more that a power-hungry politician who sees the Republican party as a convenient way to advance his status. Is this the kind of man we want governing us? Of course not.

Thankfully, his chances are near-nil.