Thursday, January 3, 2008

Iowa Caucus Results

Although it appears that no one reads this blog anymore, I decided to post the results anyway.

Republicans:

With 25 percent of the results in, Huckabee was the clear winner, with 35 percent. Romney was second, with only 24 percent. Thompson placed third with 14 percent, and McCain ran fourth with 12 percent.

My Take:

This is almost unbelievable good for Huckabee. He went from the "top of the second tier" as I characterized it earlier in the campaign to running first in many polls. And now, he's won Iowa. I'm wondering if he can keep it up through New Hampshire and the other early primaries.

Obviously not so good for Romney. To lose by that much to Huckabee is certainly rather embarrassing, but he can recover and I can see him winning New Hampshire.

Third is good for Thompson, it will give him much-needed momentum.

Fourth for McCain is disappointing. Many analysts thought he would take third. Fred Thompson obviously still has the fire to beat him.

The Democrats:

Barack Obama took the Iowa Democratic Caucus, with 34 percent. Clinton and Edwards are in a dead heat for second, each with 32 percent.

My take:

This is good, but not unexpected news for Obama. He's been polling ahead of Hillary in Iowa for a while now, and I think he can keep up the momentum.

Bad, but also not unexpected for Hillary. She still has a lot of campaigning oomph and better connections than Obama.

This is very good for Edwards. If he places second, which Bob Novak predicted, it would be phenomenal and probably vice-president material. He's too annoying to beat Obama, however.

My predictions: McCain, who finished disapointingly in Iowa, has been campaigning hard in New Hampshire and is currently ahead according to the latest RCP poll. He swept the New Hampshire newspaper endorsements, and has rocketed up in the polls because of it. Romney is biting at his heels, with Giuliani, Huckabee, and Paul in a tight race for third. Thompson is barely above the margin of error. He's hoping his Iowa momentum will last him until South Carolina.

The Democrats are more widely spaced in New Hampshire, with Clinton ahead by a decent margin, and Edwards ten points behind Obama. If Obama can manage a win in NH, he will be unstoppable, but if Clinton wins, they will be neck-and-neck going into Michigan. I haven't seen numbers, but I tend to think Michigan would favor Obama. Edwards, although he finished well in Iowa, is not really a contender in my view. He's probably going for VP again.

My Predictions for the Nominee: Democrats: Easy. Obama. Barring anything unforeseen, his defeat of Clinton in Iowa was a major upset, even if most people saw it coming. It's possible he'd go for Hillary for his VP, but I think Edwards is a more likely choice. In the event that Hillary gets the nomination, I think she might get Richardson. He has the credentials of Biden without being old. Plus he's Hispanic.

Republicans: This is harder to call. I can see it going to Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and even Thompson at a stretch. My dream P/VP match would be Thompson-Huckabee, but Huckabee-Thompson might actually happen. Romney-McCain would be a nightmare.

Well, there you are! Hope you enjoyed it.

3 Comments:

madscientist said...

lol, i read it...but i dont aways know what to comment....and i must say im glad obama is beating hillary...

sweetggirl said...

AGH! WHAT THE HECK ARE CAUCUSES? I know you TRIED to explain it to me, but I still don't get it....

sweetggirl said...

so what'd you think of Hillary winning it? :p