Predictions: The Obama Presidency + 2012

Obama Presidency Predictions

Obama's staff picks so far have been astonishingly Clinton-era; nary a new face. Clinton-ite, and pusher behind the NAFTA Free Trade Agreement that most people point to when they talk about Clinton's "centrist" policies, Rahm Emanuel, as previously mentioned, will be chief-of-staff. John Podesta, another rabid liberal partisan will be head of Obama's so called "Transition Project," which appears to be a way that Obama can lead before he's actually sworn in.

For the Cabinet, the odiously liberal HuffPo has a Dem-insider post about likely Cabinet picks.

Attorney General: The HuffPo says that former Bush AG Alberto Gonzales brought "controversy" to this post, but seems to have forgotten Janet Reno's bloody attack on religious nuts in the early nineties...ever heard of Waco? Arizona governor Janet Napolitano is reportedly in line for this post. Young, Black governor Deval Patrick is also being considered for this post in young, Black president Obama's cabinet.

Treasury Secretary: Tim Geithner, Chairman of the New York Federal Reserve, and a protege of Clinton-era TS Robert Rubin, is being considered, as well as another Clinton-era TS, the former president of Harvard, Larry Summers. Summers was fired from his (tenured) post at Harvard when he suggested that there may be inherent differences between men and women in the fields of science and engineering....Amazing. Both of these men are Clinton "centrists."

Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates, the current secretary, is probably going to stay for a while. After that, Colin Powell's name is being bandied around, but he's already served in the post under two presidents and has shown no interest. Richard Danzig, former Navy Secretary, is also being considered.

Secretary of State: The laughable John Kerry is reportedly angling hard for this job; other candidates are, surprisingly, a Republican; RINO Chuck Hagel of Nebraska; and three boring Obama policy advisors. Although, if Robert Gates is kept on as Defense Secretary, another high-ranking Republican cabinet secretary is unlikely. (Although, as Glenn Beck noted on Monday, Gates is not a registered Republican.)

Other posts:

Sec. of Agriculture: Former governor Tom Vilsack, of (you guessed it) Iowa--although he was a staunch supporter of Hillary Clinton (where is she in these discussions, by the way? Obama seems to have totally ignored her.) We Wisconsinites are much better at agriculture than the poor sappy Iowans, so may I humbly suggest to President Obama that you rid us of...err, I mean, appoint WI governor Jim Doyle to the job? Word around here is that Doyle would accept a post if it were offered to him, but it might lose the Wisconsin governorship to the Democrats.

Energy: Many people, from PA governor Ed Rendell to CA governor and Republican Ah-nold Schwarzanegger are being considered.

Education: Joel Klein or Caroline Kennedy.

Policy-wise, Obama seems to be following in Clinton's footsteps, with many old Clinton names and policies. He seems committed to ending the war in Iraq, and possibly Afghanistan as well, although he may renege on that promise if as president, he is made aware of the blow to US image it would be and the other reasons against pulling out. He would have to weigh whether upsetting the anti-war wing of the party with a phased withdrawal (like Bush's plan) would lose him more votes than the possible awful consequences to our image abroad, not to mention middle-eastern policy and politics and the possibility that emboldened terrorists would

Predictions for the 2012 Election

This all depends on Obama's presidency. Will he be Carter or Clinton? He is certainly angling to be the next Clinton, but if the economy heads even farther south, that would reflect badly on him as it did on Carter, and if he withdraws from Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a serious possibility of war in the Middle-East, possibly between Pakistan and Afghanistan, or Iran and Iraq (2.0). If Obama is a weak brand for re-election in 2012, the challenger is all the more important. If Obama seems strong or moderate, as Clinton was in '96, the LAST thing we want to do is nominate another Dole (like McCain would be then.)

Mitt Romney (who would be the first Mormon president) is already gearing up for 2012, and barring anything unexpected, he is the frontrunner: his strong economic experience would be a huge asset. Conservatives are likely to support Louisiana Republican success story Bobby Jindal, who would be the first Indian-American president, who has governed post-Katrina LA with grace and aplomb, or Sarah Palin. We will see in 2012 if Palin's image has been permanently dented by the McCain camp's mishandling of her: the whole "bulldog in lipstick" thing, I've heard, is very different than the image she cultivated as Alaska governor, and probably boiled up by the McCain people. If she put that behind her, she would be strong in 2012. If not, she would be a goof on the Dan Quayle scale. Mike Huckabee is not to be ruled out. All of these candidates seem good for 2012, just as none of them seemed particularly good for 2008. Ideally, I would pick Jindal-Huckabee, but they are so publically Christian that it might be hard. Romney-Palin could be worse, as could Romney-Huckabee or Huckabee-Romney. Romney-Jindal would be a strong ticket, but anything with Palin on the top might not fly.

Enjoy four years of the Obamaniac!

The Weekender

Among other things, this week brought Mitt Romney's endorsement of John McCain in the presidential race. This was a foregone conclusion, but the question remains: how many of Romney's delegates will consent to support McCain? If most of them go over to McCain, Huckabee's campaign will lose what little vigor it has left. If most of them go over to Huckabee, he will still be the longest of shots, but will still be very much in the race. That, at least, should be good. Although nothing really can derail McCain at this point, short of a heart attack, competition in the race is probably good for him. I think that if he stopped campaigning against Huckabee now, and entered general-election mode and attacked the Democrats this far ahead in the race, voters would quickly grow tired of it. On the other hand, he has a head start on Obama and Clinton, who still need to show each other who's boss in the Democratic race.

Another college shooting, this one at Norther Illinois University. Paradoxically, the shooter was a well-adjusted white male, outgoing and a decent student, as opposed to the V-Tech killer, an Asian with an inferiority complex and mental problems. This rampage was thankfully less deadly. So, why did this man suddenly crack? Easy, he went off his prescription meds. Just think about that for a second.

I've started a great book called "The Cure," written by a Canadian doctor, about health care in America. For those of you unaware, Mrs. Clinton advocates a socialized health care system, saying it would lead to "fair and equal care." This book, however, shoots that down in the first three chapters. Capitalism is good for the soul.

Well, I'll bid you adieu for now. Enjoy your Lenten season!

A Post-Super Tuesday Race Analysis

The most surprising thing during an otherwise lackluster Super Tuesday week was Mitt Romney's surprise termination of his campaign the day afterwards. Although he was handily beaten in many states by John McCain, he still had a fighting chance, and many Conservatives who refused to support McCain or Huckabee, like Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, and other hard-liners, had endorsed him after the exit of other, more Conservative candidates such as Fred Thompson. Mitt Romney, the slick, corporate campaigner may have had the credentials, but he didn't connect with voters like Huckabee or even McCain. I wasn't really surprised that he dropped out, but that he did so not on Super Tuesday-night, after McCain's large victory was clear, but late the next day, after he made the customary, I-don't-have-a-chance "We will keep fighting" speeches the night before.

That leaves Huck and McCain. What a race it's been for both of them! John McCain, who started as one of the three frontrunners, was dead by July but came back, his turning point being the NH primary, where he smoked Romney and Huck. From there, he went up and Romney went down, aided by a mainstream media barrage in his favor. Huckabee, the surprise winner of the Iowa caucus, failed to win anything else until Super Tuesday, where he did surprisingly well. These two candidates are both mavericks in some way; Huckabee with his overtly religious down-home campaigning style and non-conformist stance on many issues, and McCain, 70-0dd years old and always a little liberal.

On the Republican side, at least, the voters threw out the establishmentarians like Romney and Thompson, and now Huck is fighting an almost vertical battle to keep the nomination away from the almost-certain winner McCain. It's an interesting race, and I fully expect McCain to win, but Huckabee has the charm and the votes to make it close. Good luck to him.

The Democratic race is in a little bit of a deadlock, with Obama beating Clinton during Super Tuesday with a minuscule two delegates. Obama cleaned up handily in the primaries after Super Tuesday, but if Hillary can keep the race close, the decision will go to the so-called "Superdelegates"--Dem bigwigs who, according to DNC policy, can make whoever the heck they want as the nominee, and to heck with the Democratic process. If it comes to that, Clinton will almost certainly get the nomination, but I'm hoping she won't escape unscathed. She has undeniable baggage, and my bet is that the Obama-Dems will raise heck if she's the nom--they can't afford to lose this election, and Obama has a much better chance of beating McCain.

So, the most likely outcome in my opinion: McCain v. Obama. McCain v. Hillary is a serious possibility, and after Super Tuesday it would have been my definite choice, but Obama is a serious force in the liberal, educated late-primary states--such as Wisconsin.

Either Hillary or Obama will have to trounce the GOPer, most likely McCain in the election. If so, they'll call it "historic," and a "triumph over the forces of darkness," and so on. If it's close, though, like a Dewey-Truman affair, then it would be seriously bad for the Dems. They could still give their, "This election shows us that America wants CHANGE!" spiel, but it won't be as enthusiastic. If McCain wins, I think it could be the death of the Democratic party as we know it. If I were the Democrats, I'd lock Obama into the nomination, because if Clinton loses, the country will have a Republican for twelve years running, something that didn't happen in the 20th century.

An interesting side-note: the hate among Conservatives towards McCain is so rabid that Ann Coulter has said she would vote for Hillary (!!!) over McCain. Typical Ann. I think this shows a serious disconnect with Conservative America. To hate a REPUBLICAN candidate more than a Dem, and especially HILLARY, of all people, is to show that Ann doesn't care so much about the issues as she does about keeping libs out of the Republican party. And while it may not be true that the worst Republican is better than the best Dem, A decent if under-achieving Republican, Gerald Ford for example, is much, much, MUCH better than his Dem equivalent, like Carter. Frankly, I think Ann is dead wrong. We CANNOT elect a Democrat. While we may survive it in the short term, it may be talked about in the history books as a turning point: where America went wrong.

Super Bowl & Super Tuesday

Within one week, two SUPER events are going on, although which of them is SUPER-er is debatable. On the one hand you have the presidential primaries that will determine the two final candidates vying for leadership of the free world, and on the other the greatest football spectacle in history. So I'd say it's a tie.

Frankly, the Super Bowl this year was an amazing game, and I got exactly the result I wanted. I hate to brag, but I thought the Giants would win since the handily beat the Pack two weeks ago. As one sports analyst pointed out while hawking a Giants win: no team has played better football in the post season. He was right, and so was I. What a game! Unlike most years, the ads were only a diversion. The game was better, and that doesn't always happen. Tom Petty was good but not great during the halftime show and Jordin Sparks was much better than expected for the national anthem and made great use of her vocal chords without too many airs. Unlike certain other, Canadian singers that have done it in years past. coughcoughcelinedioncoughcough. It probably helps that her father actually was a pro football player.

On to Super Tuesday. It's looking very bad for Romney, better than expected for Huckabee, and predictably a walkover for McCain. I guess I'm going to have to reconcile myself to McCain as the frontrunner for the GOP nomination. I don't like it, but my likes and dislikes sadly do not determine everything, or indeed much at all. Huckabee had a great day, winning West Virginia, Alabama, Arkansas, and some other states, at the expense of Romney. McCain won some of the more liberal states and generally stuffed it up Romney's face. McCain, whose campaign was virtually dead this summer, has been revitalized, and it's shocking to me how large a part the liberal media played in it. After his unexpected win in New Hampshire, they hawked him 24/7 and it paid off. Those dirty crooks. Oh, well, no one listens to me anyway. Romney is pretty much dead unless he takes the big prize, California, which is still in voting. I saw polls yesterday that had him with a lead over McCain, but that seems improbable considering how liberal the state is, and that many former supporters of Giuliani, the most liberal candidate, went over to McCain.

On to bigger and better things. Anyone could have seen in my post about Predestination that I was wavering, and I finally slipped over the brink. BUT I DON'T HAVE TO LIKE IT! No, I like it. I now realize it's the clear scriptural position. Frankly, what I don't want to do is talk about it. I hate arguing about things when I've just switched from one side to the other. I have to give my predestination shell some time to harden.

Wavering on Huckabee

First the good news. Well, for you. In the past week, I have been spending entirely too much time fiddling with this blog. As you may have noticed. I have added, for example, a "Chat" function which you seem disinclined to use, a "Bookmark" function at the bottom of each post, a "Fred 08" button, a Christmas Banner, a new quote, a new Goodreads widget, and, of course, TWO new layouts. I have changed the layout a second time, you may notice, because I was sick of all that empty space on one side of my blog. With the new layout, that problem has evaporated like John's McCain's Presidential aspirations.

Second, the bad news. Huckabee, as you may know, has been making a serious effort in the polls. He is ahead in all-important Iowa and first or second nationally, depending on what poll you look at. This is good for HIM, but as I now realize, it may be bad for true Conservatives out there. I predicted early on that Huckabee would rise to the heap of the second-tier Candidates, and indeed he has exceeded my expectations. The more I look at him, however, the more his record seems to be too liberal, or in some cases, too plain strange. I have to say, and you can take this as official, that I am once again supporting Fred Thompson. However, I would vote for Huckabee with little hesitation, especially since his mix of experience, ambition, and charisma would make him a formidable foe for any Democrat, whereas Fred has a folksier, more easygoing style that may cost him in the long run.

Anyhoo, there you have it folks. I'm trying, in the interest of journalism, to post articles almost every day on the blog. Please, give me feedback. Also, I invite you to use the chat function. It isn't perfect, and I'm still looking for alternatives, but for now it could work. Fred 2008!

The Candidates: Where are they now?

It's been several weeks since my last post, and several months since I really went into detail about the Presidential candidates. I deeply apologize.

The election, of course, is closer than ever, and in that time period, the campaigns have really got off the ground.

So, let's begin.

THE DEMOCRATS
They are heavily favored, but one scandal could drag them all down.

HILLARY CLINTON
She continues to lead in the polls, with a fairly substantial margin over B. Obama. So far, her campaigning has been relatively flawless, as one would suspect. Especially since she's been planning it for decades.

BARACK OBAMA
He is still a force to be reckoned with, and I can easily see the nomination going to him. He's "inexperienced," but compared to Hillary's record, that's definitely a good thing. Especially if he's running as an outsider; someone who says he wants to turn Washington upside down.

JOHN EDWARDS
He's a long-shot, but he's played all his cards in Iowa, and that could get him almost onto the same level as Obama and Clinton. Even more than Obama, he's running a populist campaign. He was on the cover of Esquire, for crying out loud. Honestly, though, for an unprincipled former trial lawyer, Edwards has made it far. Too far. I almost hope he'll get the VP ticket again--he lost his own state in 2004.

THE OTHER DEMOCRATS
No one really stands out, but I think that's because the Democratic Party has two dream candidates in Obama and Clinton, and a third one for the racist bigots "yellow dog" 'crats who won't vote for the other two--Edwards. Biden continues his straight talk, but it's getting him nowhere fast. The others: zilch.

THE REPUBLICANS
Even though they are a long-shot for the presidency, we have a reasonably strong field, with something for just about everybody.

RUDY GIULIANI
...Is fighting for his life in the polls. Fred Thompson, who has only JUST started campaigning, is already close to him in the polls, and that combined with his liberal views makes me very doubtful of his chances.

JOHN MCCAIN
Is dead. Not literally. He'll probably still get about six or seven votes; all old Texan men with big belt buckles.

MITT ROMNEY
It's hard to categorize Romney. He flip-flopped on Abortion, and he has a liberal spending record, but who knows? He's running third in the polls and leading a flawless campaign. Still though, he seems lackluster.

FRED THOMPSON
He finally announced his candidacy, and none too soon. He'll have to play a strong game, especially as he is seen as an establishmentarian candidate. Not a good thing for a candidate campaigning as an outsider. He was a Washington lobbyist too, which is a yellow card. I think he has wide appeal, and he's probably my pick for nominee.

MIKE HUCKABEE
Has made a serious play, and is now in the top of the second tier, or the bottom of the first tier, and upwardly mobile. A bass-guitar-playing former Baptist minister from Arkansas? Every liberal's worst fear. He's even slime and mildly photogenic. Go Mike!

THE OTHER REPUBLICANS
Are preeety sad. We'll see though.

Sorry for all the time I've been gone. School's started and put me in a bit of a time-bind. I'm going to try to be more regular in the future. Believe me, I have lots of ideas.